CLIMATIC CHANGE气候变化
CLIMATIC CHANGE(英文缩写 CLIMATIC CHANGE),ISSN 0165-0009,eISSN 1573-1480,中文译名:气候变化 是一本学术期刊。本页汇总该期刊的最新影响因子、分区信息以及最新收录于 PubMed 的文献,帮助您快速了解期刊全貌。
发文量统计区间：2025-09-28 至 2026-09-28，按本站收录文献的发表日期统计。
期刊介绍
历年影响因子趋势
| JCR 数据年份 | 影响因子 | JCR 分区 |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5.174 | Q1 |
| 2022 | 4.800 | Q2 |
| 2023 | 4.800 | Q1 |
| 2024 | 4.800 | Q1 |
| 2025 | 5.200 | Q1 |
CLIMATIC CHANGE 最新收录文献
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1. Emerging changes in lake temperature extremes and variability in South America.
PMID:日期:2026-01-01South America contains some of the world's most ecologically and hydrologically diverse freshwater systems, which are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and human pressures. Despite their importance, the diurnal and interannual variability of lake surface water temperature (LSWT) across the continent remains poorly understood. In this study, we analyze thermal patterns in 2,406 South American lakes, spanning both historical (1981-2020) and future (2021-2099) periods. We assess LSWT trends, lake heatwave dynamics, and the influence of key meteorological drivers on lake thermal dynamics. Our results show that 97.0% of lakes ( = 2,333) experienced significant warming over the past four decades (+ 0.11 K decade), with 86.2% ( = 2,074) also exhibiting rising diurnal temperature variability (+ 0.02 K decade). Air temperature was the dominant driver in the northern and southern regions, while shortwave radiation played a greater role in shaping diurnal dynamics. LSWT anomalies are projected to rise, with heatwave events increasing in frequency, duration and intensity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, we introduce a novel thermal typology based on diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges, identifying distinct lake response types, such as Thermally Extreme and Thermally Buffered, highlighting differential sensitivities to climate forcing. These findings provide new insight into lake thermal behaviour under climate change and underscore the need for targeted adaptation and conservation strategies to protect freshwater ecosystems in South America. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-026-04137-0.
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2. Extreme heat and drought at flowering could threaten global wheat yields under climate change.
PMID:日期:2026-01-01Global food security is a major challenge in the 21st century, exacerbated by increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events under climate change. The extreme climatic events around flowering, such as intense heatwaves and droughts, threaten crop yields by impacting reproductive development and grain setting. Our study estimated the potential impacts of short-term, high impact extreme temperature and drought events during flowering on global wheat yields under future climates, using climate projections from CMIP6 and a state-of-the-art wheat model (Sirius). Results show that although extreme drought around flowering currently poses a higher yield loss than extreme heat, global yield loss due to drought is predicted to decrease by 9% and 18% by 2050 and 2090, respectively. Yet, global yield losses from heat stress are expected to increase significantly, by 32% and 77% by 2050 and 2090, respectively. Consequently, heat stress at flowering emerges as a serious threat to global wheat yields under climate change, substantially increasing the vulnerability of wheat. Therefore, developing new cultivars tolerant not only to drought but also heat stress during flowering is critical for enhancing future wheat yields and sustainability in changing climates. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04054-8.
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3. The attribution of human health outcomes to climate change: a transdisciplinary guidance document.
PMID:日期:2025-08-01For over 30 years, detection and attribution (D&A) studies have informed key conclusions in international and national assessments of climate science, providing compelling evidence for the reality and seriousness of the human effects on the global climate. In the early 21st century, D&A methods were adapted to assess the contribution of climate change to longer-term trends in earth system processes and extreme weather events. More recently, attribution research helped quantify the health and economic impacts of climate change. Here we provide guidance for transdisciplinary collaboration in designing, conducting, interpreting, and reporting robust and policy-relevant attribution analyses of human health outcomes. This guidance resulted from discussions among experts in health and climate science. Recommended steps include co-developing the research question across disciplines; establishing a transdisciplinary analytic team with fundamental grounding in the core disciplines; engaging meaningfully with relevant stakeholders and decision-makers to define an appropriate study design and analytic process, including defining the exposure event or trend; identifying, visualizing, and describing linkages in the causal pathway from exposure to weather/climate variables to the health outcome(s) of interest; choosing appropriate counterfactual climate data, and where applicable, to evaluate the skill of the climate and process or empirical health model(s) used in D&A research; quantifying the attributable changes in climate variables; quantifying the attributable health impacts within the context of other determinants of exposure and vulnerability; and reporting key results, including a description of how recommendations were incorporated into the analytical plan. Implementation of guidance would benefit diverse stakeholders including researchers, research funders, policymakers, and climate litigation by harmonizing methods and increasing confidence in findings.
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4. Understanding and predicting the geographic distributions of phlebotomine sand flies in and around Europe.
PMID:日期:2025-01-01Climate and land-use changes influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases by affecting the distribution and survival of disease vectors. Numerous diseases are transmitted by phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), including leishmaniasis. Several major sand fly-borne diseases are responsible for high global disease burdens and high socio-economic costs. In Europe, over 20 known sand fly vector species are largely confined to the Mediterranean Basin, yet records of sand fly presence further north increase. Global warming is predicted to drive the spread of sand flies to large areas of Europe in the 21th century, an effect likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic factors. However, the constraints to the geographic distributions of sand flies are not well understood. This study aims to increase the understanding of the drivers of the geographic distributions of sand flies, using species distribution modelling to systematically test links between sand fly occurrences and climatic, land-use, lithological, biodiversity and human population variables in Europe and adjacent Mediterranean regions. We found that moisture is the most important environmental variable both in explaining and in predicting sand fly occurrences. The projected suitable habitats are larger than the current known sand fly distributions, and these habitats are expected to expand due to changes in climate and land-use. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04009-z.
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5. The nexus of climate and conflict in the Lake Chad Region: what we know, don't know and need to know.
PMID:日期:2025-01-01Despite the substantial body of knowledge available regarding the nexus between climate and conflict, this knowledge remains scattered, fragmented and incomplete. There are various interpretations of how this nexus plays out, as well as different perspectives on the spectrum of "" in fragile and conflict-affected areas. This is particularly the case in the Lake Chad region, an area that is often portrayed as a unique "testbed" for understanding climate conflict relations. This study systematically mapped and analysed published work on the nexus of climate and conflict, synthesising narratives and unpacking evidence on what we know, do not know and need to know about the nexus in the Lake Chad region. Our findings outline six key areas of knowledge that provide evidence on the nexus, including (i) how the nexus has evolved with the ongoing increase in regional climatic stress where temperatures are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average, (ii) whether studies link climatic events to different stages of the conflict cycle or the conflict continuum, and (iii) whether climatic events also introduce new forms of conflict along the conflict continuum. We note that studies failed to ask how fragility (assessed in terms of lack of state legitimacy, capacity and authority) shapes group identity/solidarity and spatiotemporal variations in climate-conflict nexus patterns and impacts. We suggest that the spectrum of what is considered "" be expanded, paying particular attention to the continuum (including phases and cycles) of conflict and how different conflict types interact and reinforce one another under climate shocks. Ultimately, knowledge co-creation can help integrate fragmented evidence about the nexus, fostering a unified, coherent and verifiable body of knowledge that can support joint climate and peace initiatives and wider transformative change across the region. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04024-0.
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6. Innovations in the climate assessment development process.
PMID:日期:2025-01-01Climate assessments have long been key scientific inputs that inform the development of productive and impactful climate policy in the United States and around the world. This introduction sets the stage for the suite of papers in the Topical Collection "Advancements in U.S. Climate Assessments." Inspired and informed by the release of the Fifth National Climate Assessment, the papers within this issue document lessons learned over the past 30+ years and leverage the perspectives of previous assessment authors and staff to aid those interested in developing their own climate assessments. This paper reviews the evolution of climate assessments and the factors that make for useful, usable, and used scientific products to support societal choices. Evolving user needs over the last 30+ years also reflect a shift in demand towards more localized or more context-specific climate data that integrates social science information, tools, and frameworks. To meet these needs, we highlight three areas of potential opportunity and challenge for future assessments: continued and strengthened conversations between assessment developers across geographic scale to share innovations and lessons learned in the development process; working with knowledge holders in under-represented areas of expertise to alter assessment governance and guidelines to better incorporate diverse perspectives; and seizing opportunities for using innovative communication and engagement mediums.
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7. Managing the water-energy-food nexus in the adige river basin: impacts of climate and land use change on ecosystem services bundles.
PMID:日期:2025-01-01The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus framework highlights the interdependencies among water, energy, and food systems. Integrating Ecosystem Services (ESs) enhances this approach by incorporating ecological benefits for more holistic assessments. This study applies a spatially explicit ESs-based WEF nexus analysis in the Adige River Basin (Northern Italy), focusing on five ESs: water provisioning, crop yield, sediment retention, carbon storage, and landscape diversity, under two future scenarios (SSP1-RCP 2.6 and SSP5-RCP 8.5) from 2018 to 2050. Using Self-Organizing Maps, sub-basins were clustered into ESs bundles enabling the identification of tailored management strategies. Results reveal spatial heterogeneity and shifts in ESs bundles, with synergies often found in upstream, forested areas. Under high-emission scenarios, regulating services decline and provisioning services face trade-offs, especially with intensified agriculture. Key strategies suggested include maintaining environmental flows, reducing synthetic fertilizers, promoting reforestation, crop diversification, and expanding protected areas. These are structured into physical, economic, and climatic pathways aligned with EU restoration goals. Findings demonstrate the value of an ESs-bundles approach for optimizing synergies and managing trade-offs across the WEF nexus. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04013-3.
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8. Refining methods for attributing health impacts to climate change: a heat-mortality case study in Zürich.
PMID:日期:2025-01-01Heat-related deaths occur throughout the summer months, peak during heatwaves, and are affected by temperature and exposed populations' sensitivities to meteorological conditions. Previous studies found that climate change is increasing heat-related mortality worldwide. We build on existing epidemiological methods to shed light on the adverse effects of climate change on human health. We address limitations in existing methods and apply refined approaches to assess heat mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Zürich, Switzerland, over 50 years (1969-2018) including a case study of summer 2018. Our methodological refinements affect how counterfactual climate scenarios are derived, and facilitate accounting for changing vulnerability, and assessing impacts during and outside heatwaves. We find nearly 1,700 heat-related deaths attributable to human-induced climate change between 1969 and 2018. Declining vulnerability to heat avoided at least 700 heat-related deaths. The approach described here could be applied elsewhere to quantify the effect of climate change on other health outcomes. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04011-5.
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9. Media coverage of climate activist groups in Germany.
PMID:日期:2025-01-01Climate activist groups aim to address climate change by informing citizens about its risks and potential solutions, and by providing a way for citizens to engage in collective action to change policy. The effectiveness of climate activist groups, some of which engage in disruptive protests, is influenced by how they are portrayed by the news media. Using frequency analysis and GPT-4, we analysed all online news articles from major German newspapers in 2022 and 2023 about the two most prominent climate activist groups, Fridays for Future and Last Generation. A substantial proportion of the articles provides little information about the risks and solutions of climate change, especially when reporting on the more disruptive Last Generation compared to Fridays for Future, which primarily engages in legal protest. Last Generation is also portrayed more negatively, as more violent, and as more polarising. Right-leaning newspapers provide the least information about climate change and portray activist groups most negatively. We discuss the implications of our results for the media, activist groups, and future research.
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10. The social sciences in climate assessments in the United States.
PMID:日期:2025-01-01This article looks at the inclusion of the social sciences in recent climate assessment reports from national and sub-national jurisdictions (state, territory, district) of the United States. It compares and contrasts interdisciplinary integration based on three criteria: inclusion of societal topics; the use of social science frameworks, theory, and literature to interpret findings; and processes of knowledge production. National and sub-national climate assessments serve different societal purposes and decision-making goals, and are produced in distinct knowledge governance contexts. While climate focused social sciences are increasingly incorporated into assessments, the nature of this incorporation varies across assessment types. The greatest advancements for interdisciplinary integration in the Fifth National Climate Assessment are in the robust treatment of economics, equity and environmental justice, and social systems and the addition of core concepts to the climate lexicon. In sub-national assessments, alternative organizational formats open up space to examine climate-society interactions for sectoral or geographic topics of interest. However, their analysis often is limited to vulnerability mapping and dollar values instead of the broader social and economic systems that shape climate drivers, hazards, impacts, and responses. Most social sciences are present in climate impacts chapters. There is opportunity to engage additional social science in analysis of climate hazards, drivers of climate change, mitigation and adaptation efforts, and the underlying social causes of vulnerability. Better integration of the social and biogeophysical sciences can help assessments expand the language of climate response and universe of potential interventions, enabling them to inform decision-making at national to local scales.