QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS经济学季刊
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS(英文缩写 Q J ECON),ISSN 0033-5533,eISSN 1531-4650,中文译名:经济学季刊 是一本学术期刊。本页汇总该期刊的最新影响因子、分区信息以及最新收录于 PubMed 的文献,帮助您快速了解期刊全貌。
发文量统计区间：2025-11-01 至 2026-10-31，按本站收录文献的发表日期统计。
期刊介绍
历年影响因子趋势
| JCR 数据年份 | 影响因子 | JCR 分区 |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19.013 | Q1 |
| 2022 | 13.700 | Q1 |
| 2023 | 11.100 | Q1 |
| 2024 | 12.700 | Q1 |
| 2025 | 13.100 | Q1 |
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 最新收录文献
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1. What Drives Risky Prescription Opioid Use?: Evidence from Migration.
PMID:日期:2025-08-07We develop and estimate a dynamic model of risky prescription opioid use that allows us to unpack the role of person- and place-specific drivers of the opioid epidemic and to assess the impact of state opioid policies. Event studies indicate that, among adults receiving federal disability insurance from 2006 to 2019, moves to states with higher rates of risky use produce an immediate jump in the probability of risky use, followed by an additional gradual increase for the next several years. Using a potential outcomes framework, we show how these results map to the person- and place-specific factors in the model. Model estimates imply large effects of place on both the likelihood of transitioning to addiction and the availability of prescription opioids; they also indicate that these place effects change significantly when state laws restricting pain clinics are enacted. A one standard deviation reduction in all place effects would have reduced risky use by about 40 percent over our study period. One particular source of place effects, pain clinic laws, reduced risky use by 5 percent, but could have reduced it by 30 percent if they had been enacted earlier, with much of this magnification operating through the dynamics of addiction.
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2. LIVES VERSUS LIVELIHOODS: THE IMPACT OF THE GREAT RECESSION ON MORTALITY AND WELFARE.
PMID:日期:2025-05-15We leverage spatial variation in the severity of the Great Recession across the United States to examine its impact on mortality and explore the quantitative implications. We estimate that an increase in the unemployment rate of the magnitude of the Great Recession reduces the average annual age-adjusted mortality rate by 2.3%, with effects persisting for at least 10 years. Mortality reductions appear across causes of death and are concentrated in the half of the population with a high school degree or less. We estimate similar percentage reductions in mortality at all ages, with declines in elderly mortality thus responsible for about three-quarters of the total mortality reduction. Recession-induced mortality declines are driven primarily by external effects of reduced aggregate economic activity on mortality, and reduced air pollution appears to be a quantitatively important mechanism. Incorporating our estimates of procyclical mortality into a standard macroeconomic framework substantially reduces the welfare costs of recessions, particularly for people with less education, and at older ages.
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3. THE IMPACT OF BEING DENIED A WANTED ABORTION ON WOMEN AND THEIR CHILDREN.
PMID:日期:2025-01-24This paper examines the impact of denying a wanted abortion on women and children in Colombia using high-quality administrative microdata and credibly exogenous variation in abortion access. Women can seek legal abortions through a , with cases randomly assigned to judges. Female judges are 20 p.p. (32%) less likely to deny abortion cases than male judges, and we use the judge's sex as an instrument for abortion denial. Denial of a wanted abortion has both immediate and lasting effects. It increases a woman's risk of death by 2.5 p.p within nine months, mainly due to unsafe abortion procedures, and raises the likelihood of carrying the pregnancy to term by 31 p.p. Tracking outcomes up to 15 years later, we find that women denied an abortion experience more health issues, lower educational attainment, reduced labor-force participation, and higher rates of single motherhood, poverty, and reliance on government assistance. Existing children, born before their mother sought an abortion, are less likely to attend school and more likely to work.
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4. Social Signaling and Childhood Immunization: A Field Experiment in Sierra Leone.
PMID:日期:2024-08-29This article explores the use of social signaling as a policy tool to sustainably affect childhood immunization. In a 26-month field experiment with public clinics in Sierra Leone, I introduce a verifiable signal-in the form of color-coded bracelets-given to children upon timely completion of the first four or all five required vaccinations. Signals increase parents' belief in the visibility of their actions and knowledge of other children's vaccine status. The impact of signals varies significantly with the cost and perceived benefits of the action. There are no discernible effects on timely and complete immunization when the signal is linked to an easier-to-complete vaccine with low perceived benefits, and large positive effects when the signal is linked to a costlier-to-achieve vaccine with high perceived benefits. Parents adjust their behavior nine months before realizing the social image benefit, demonstrating the motivational strength of signaling incentives. Of substantive policy importance, bracelets increase full immunization at one year of age by 9 percentage points, with impacts persisting at two years of age. At a marginal cost of US$24.7 per fully immunized child, social signals can be as cost-effective as financial or in-kind incentives.
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5. The Lifetime Impacts of the New Deal's Youth Employment Program.
PMID:日期:2024-06-08We study the lifetime effects of the first and largest American youth employment and training program in the United States-the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), 1933-1942. We match newly digitized enrollee records to census, World War II enlistment, Social Security, and death records. We find that longer service in the CCC led to improvements in height, health status, longevity, geographic mobility, and lifetime earnings but did not improve short-term labor market outcomes, including employment and wages. We address potential selection into CCC duration using several approaches, most importantly two newly developed control-function approaches that leverage unbiased estimates of the short-term effects of a randomized controlled trial of Job Corps (the modern version of the CCC). Our findings suggest that short- and medium-term evaluations of employment programs underestimate effects because they fail to capture lifetime effects and often ignore or underestimate health and longevity benefits that increase in magnitude at later ages.
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6. Crowding in Private Quality: The Equilibrium Effects of Public Spending in Education.
PMID:日期:2024-05-09We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village-level, allowing us to estimate its causal impact on the market. Four years after the start of the program, test scores were 0.2 sd higher in public schools. We find evidence of an : test scores in private schools were also 0.2 sd higher in treated markets. Consistent with standard models of product differentiation, the education multiplier is greater for those private schools that faced a greater threat to their market power. Accounting for private sector responses increases the program's cost-effectiveness by 85% and affects how a policymaker would target spending. Given that markets with several public and private schools are now pervasive in low- and middle-income countries, prudent policy requires us to account for private sector responses to public policy, both in their design and in their evaluation.
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7. The Health Costs of Cost Sharing.
PMID:日期:2024-05-03What happens when patients suddenly stop their medications? We study the health consequences of drug interruptions caused by large, abrupt, and arbitrary changes in price. Medicare's prescription drug benefit as-if-randomly assigns 65-year-olds a drug budget as a function of their birth month, beyond which out-of-pocket costs suddenly increase. Those facing smaller budgets consume fewer drugs and die more: mortality increases 0.0164 percentage points per month (13.9%) for each $100 per month budget decrease (24.4%). This estimate is robust to a range of falsification checks and lies in the 97.8th percentile of 544 placebo estimates from similar populations that lack the same idiosyncratic budget policy. Several facts help make sense of this large effect. First, patients stop taking drugs that are both high value and suspected to cause life-threatening withdrawal syndromes when stopped. Second, using machine learning, we identify patients at the highest risk of drug-preventable adverse events. Contrary to the predictions of standard economic models, high-risk patients (e.g., those most likely to have a heart attack) cut back more than low-risk patients on exactly those drugs that would benefit them the most (e.g., statins). Finally, patients appear unaware of these risks. In a survey of 65-year-olds, only one-third believe that stopping their drugs for up to a month could have any serious consequences. We conclude that far from curbing waste, cost sharing is itself highly inefficient, resulting in missed opportunities to buy health at very low cost ($11,321 per life-year).
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8. Discrimination in Multi-Phase Systems: Evidence from Child Protection.
PMID:日期:2024-02-28We develop empirical tools for studying discrimination in multi-phase systems, and apply them to the setting of foster care placement by child protective services. Leveraging the quasi-random assignment of two sets of decision-makers-initial hotline call screeners and subsequent investigators-we study how unwarranted racial disparities arise and propagate through this system. Using a sample of over 200,000 maltreatment allegations, we find that calls involving Black children are 55% more likely to result in foster care placement than calls involving white children with the same potential for future maltreatment in the home. Call screeners account for up to 19% of this unwarranted disparity, with the remainder due to investigators. Unwarranted disparity is concentrated in cases with potential for future maltreatment, suggesting that white children may be harmed by "under-placement" in high-risk situations.
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9. How the 1963 Equal Pay Act and 1964 Civil Rights Act Shaped the Gender Gap in Pay.
PMID:日期:2024-02-28In the 1960s, two landmark statutes-the Equal Pay and Civil Rights Acts-targeted the long-standing practice of employment discrimination against U.S. women. For the next 15 years, the gender gap in median earnings among full-time, full-year workers changed little, leading many scholars to conclude that the legislation was ineffectual. This article revisits this conclusion using two research designs, which leverage (i) cross-state variation in preexisting state equal pay laws and (ii) variation in the 1960 gender gap across occupation-industry-state-group cells to capture differences in the legislation's incidence. Both designs suggest that federal antidiscrimination legislation led to striking gains in women's relative wages, which were concentrated among below-median wage earners. These wage gains offset preexisting labor market forces, which worked to depress women's relative pay growth, resulting in the apparent stability of the gender gap at the median and mean in the 1960s and 1970s. The data show little evidence of short-term changes in women's employment but suggest that firms reduced their hiring and promotion of women in the medium to long term. The historical record points to the key role of the Equal Pay Act in driving these changes.
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10. THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF COVID-19: EVIDENCE FROM A NEW PUBLIC DATABASE BUILT USING PRIVATE SECTOR DATA.
PMID:日期:2023-10-04We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity in the United States at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report weekly statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, job postings, and employment rates disaggregated by county, sector, and income group. Using the publicly available data, we show how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its effects across subgroups. High-income individuals reduced spending sharply in March 2020, particularly in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent, dense areas. Those businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses, especially among low-wage workers in such areas. High-wage workers experienced a V-shaped recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger, more persistent job losses. Even though consumer spending and job postings had recovered fully by December 2021, employment rates in low-wage jobs remained depressed in areas that were initially hard hit, indicating that the temporary fall in labor demand led to a persistent reduction in labor supply. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we evaluate the effects of fiscal stimulus policies designed to stem the downward spiral in economic activity. Cash stimulus payments led to sharp increases in spending early in the pandemic, but much smaller responses later in the pandemic, especially for high-income households. Real-time estimates of marginal propensities to consume provided better forecasts of the impacts of subsequent rounds of stimulus payments than historical estimates. Overall, our findings suggest that fiscal policies can stem secondary declines in consumer spending and job losses, but cannot restore full employment when the initial shock to consumer spending arises from health concerns. More broadly, our analysis demonstrates how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and real-time policy analyses, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics.