工作时间如何影响幸福感：目标试验模拟
How work hours affect well-being: A target trial emulation.
摘要(中文译文)
研究将较长工作时间与多维度的幸福感联系起来，但相关性并不能说明如果工时发生变化会发生什么。目标试验模拟通过明确我们希望开展的实验，然后用观察数据对其进行近似，从而解决这一问题。利用新西兰态度与价值观研究（NZAVS，N = 24,579；2020-2023）的三个年度波次，我们估计了如果同一队列的退休前成年人每周比实际观察值多工作10小时或少工作10小时，28项幸福感结局会如何不同。我们在考虑失访之后，比较了每周工时增加10小时或减少10小时与实际发生情况之间的差异，并使用机器学习方法校正基线差异。每周工作时间增加10小时最明显地增加了疲劳并减少了睡眠；体重指数（BMI）和自评身体健康也出现不利变化，但对残余混杂更为敏感，而感知支持略有增加，但仍对混杂敏感。每周工作时间减少10小时最明显地降低了疲劳；BMI和自评身体健康也出现有利变化，但同样对残余混杂更为敏感。大多数结局在两种政策下变化不大，且数据对工时减少的支持更好。朴素的基线关联范围更广、幅度更大，有时符号相反，而敏感性分析（E值）表明，最明确的疲劳效应对中等强度的残余混杂具有稳健性。在所述假设下，工时变化对恢复和自评身体健康的影响大于对广泛幸福感的影响。
Abstract
Studies link longer work hours to multiple dimensions of well-being, but correlations do not show what would happen if hours changed. Target-trial emulation addresses this problem by specifying the experiment we would like to run and then approximating it with observational data. Using three annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (NZAVS, N = 24,579; 2020-2023), we estimate how 28 well-being outcomes would differ if the same cohort of pre-retirement adults worked 10 more or 10 fewer hours per week than observed. We compare what would happen if weekly hours shifted up by 10 or down by 10 with what actually occurred, after accounting for dropout, using machine-learning methods to adjust for baseline differences. Increasing work hours by 10 most clearly raises fatigue and reduces sleep; body mass index (BMI) and perceived physical health also shift adversely but are more sensitive to residual confounding, while perceived support increases slightly but remains confounding-sensitive. Decreasing work hours by 10 most clearly lowers fatigue; BMI and perceived physical health also shift favourably but are likewise more sensitive to residual confounding. Most outcomes show little movement under either policy, and the downward shift is better supported by the data. Naive baseline associations are broader, larger, and sometimes reversed in sign, whereas sensitivity analyses (E-values) indicate that the clearest fatigue effects are robust to moderately strong residual confounding. Under the stated assumptions, work-hour shifts affect recovery and perceived physical health more than broad well-being.
如何引用
AMA
Ballerina X S Chong, Chris G Sibley, Joseph A Bulbulia. How work hours affect well-being: A target trial emulation.. PloS one. 2026; doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0350816.
APA
Ballerina X S Chong, Chris G Sibley, Joseph A Bulbulia (2026). How work hours affect well-being: A target trial emulation.. PloS one. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0350816
GB/T 7714
Ballerina X S Chong, Chris G Sibley, Joseph A Bulbulia. How work hours affect well-being: A target trial emulation.[J]. PloS one, 2026 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0350816.
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