一个基于试剂的平台，用于模拟衣原体疫苗在美国人群中的影响
An agent-based platform for simulating the impact of chlamydia vaccine in the US population.
摘要(中文译文)
沙眼衣原体（Chlamydia trachomatis，CT）仍是美国报告最多的细菌性性传播感染，这凸显了研发有效疫苗的迫切需求。本研究构建了一个基于个体的模型，并依据美国全国家庭成长调查（NSFG）和全国健康与营养检查调查（NHANES）数据集进行校准，用以研究疫苗对CT及全因盆腔炎性疾病（PID）负担的影响。该模型进一步依据独立的流行病学数据进行了验证。研究显示，一种效力为50%、覆盖率为60%的常规疫苗可使衣原体患病率降低64.2%[95%CI：43.0-68.1]，并使一生中至少经历过一次全因PID发作的女性患病率降低14.3%[95%CI：10.1-29.4]。在15-24岁人群中优先接种疫苗可产生最大影响，即使疫苗性能中等亦然，这凸显了以年龄为目标、纳入不同性别的策略的重要性。这些发现为衣原体疫苗接种规划的设计与实施提供了定量证据，并彰显了基于个体的建模框架在评估性传播感染复杂干预策略方面的价值。
Abstract
Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) remains the most reported bacterial sexually transmitted infection in the United States (US), underscoring the urgent need for an effective vaccine. An agent-based model calibrated to the US National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) datasets was developed and used to study the impact of vaccine on the CT and all-cause pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) burden. The model was further validated against independent epidemiological data. Here we show that a conventional vaccine with 50% efficacy and 60% coverage can achieve a 64.2% [95%CI: 43.0-68.1] reduction in chlamydia prevalence and a 14.3% [95%CI: 10.1-29.4] reduction in the prevalence of women with one or more lifetime episodes of all-cause PID. Prioritizing vaccination among individuals aged 15-24 yielded the greatest impact, even with moderate vaccine performance, highlighting the importance of age-targeted, gender-inclusive strategies. These findings provide quantitative evidence to support the design and implementation of chlamydia vaccination programs and highlight the value of agent-based modeling frameworks for evaluating complex intervention strategies in sexually transmitted infections.
如何引用
AMA
Qi Deng, Grégoire Ranson, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Valerie Bosch Castells, Sandra S Chaves, Edward Thommes, et al. An agent-based platform for simulating the impact of chlamydia vaccine in the US population.. Nature communications. 2026; doi:10.1038/s41467-026-74025-9.
APA
Qi Deng, Grégoire Ranson, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Valerie Bosch Castells, Sandra S Chaves, Edward Thommes, et al (2026). An agent-based platform for simulating the impact of chlamydia vaccine in the US population.. Nature communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74025-9
GB/T 7714
Qi Deng, Grégoire Ranson, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Valerie Bosch Castells, Sandra S Chaves, Edward Thommes, et al. An agent-based platform for simulating the impact of chlamydia vaccine in the US population.[J]. Nature communications, 2026 doi:10.1038/s41467-026-74025-9.
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