1950年至2024年西班牙气候相关灾害的趋势与流行病学特征

摘要(中文译文)

气候相关灾害是气象、水文和气候灾害的结果。此类灾害发生频率的增加与人为气候变化密切相关，同时也与其他因素如土地利用变化和人口暴露度有关。本研究旨在分析西班牙气候相关灾害的流行病学特征及其时间趋势。对1950年1月至2024年12月期间西班牙的气候相关灾害进行了回顾性描述性研究。数据从多个国际和国家来源汇编，以确保事件的全面覆盖。分析了绝对频率和相对频率，并计算了每种灾害类型的每百万居民平均死亡率、伤害率和受影响率。时间趋势通过Mann-Kendall检验评估，而各灾害类别间总平均率的差异通过ANOVA检验评估。共记录了224起气候相关灾害。在灾害总绝对频率（tau = 0.558；< 0.001）、平均死亡率（tau = 0.239；< 0.001）、平均伤害率（tau = 0.144；= < 0.001）和平均受影响率（tau = 0.481；= < 0.001）方面，发现了统计学显著的上升趋势。平均死亡率根据灾害类型表现出统计学显著差异（F = 4.40；= 0.013）。从1950年到2024年，气候相关灾害的数量及其相关人员伤亡呈现出统计学显著的上升趋势。截至2024年12月记录的数据表明，这一上升轨迹仍在持续，尤其是在死亡率和受影响人群方面。

Abstract

Climate-related disasters are the result of meteorological, hydrological, and climatological hazards. The increasing frequency of such disasters is closely linked to anthropogenic climate change, alongside other factors such as changes in land use and population exposure. The objective of the present study was to analyze the epidemiological profile of climate-related disasters in Spain and their temporal trends. A retrospective descriptive study of climate-related disasters in Spain was performed for the period between January 1950 and December 2024. Data were compiled from various international and national sources to ensure comprehensive coverage of events. Both absolute and relative frequencies were analyzed, and mean mortality, injury, and affected person rates per million inhabitants were calculated for each disaster type. Temporal trends were assessed through the Mann-Kendall test, while differences in total mean rates across disaster categories were evaluated using the ANOVA test. A total of 224 climate-related disasters were documented. Statistically significant increasing trends were identified in the total absolute frequency of disasters (tau = 0.558; < 0.001), the mean mortality rate (tau = 0.239; < 0.001), the mean injury rate (tau = 0.144; = < 0.001), and the mean rate of affected individuals (tau = 0.481; = < 0.001). The mean mortality rate exhibited statistically significant differences according to the type of disaster (F = 4.40; = 0.013). From 1950 to 2024, a statistically significant increasing trend was observed in the number of climate-related disasters and their associated human toll. Data recorded through December 2024 indicate that this upward trajectory continues, particularly regarding mortality and affected individuals.

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