【基于XGBoost SHAP模型的闽三角城市群生态环境质量时空演变及驱动因素分析】

摘要(中文译文)

研究闽三角城市群生态环境质量的时空演变模式及其驱动因素，对于确保区域生态安全、促进高质量发展至关重要。本研究利用谷歌地球引擎平台上2000年至2024年的陆地卫星遥感数据集，通过主成分分析计算了遥感生态指数（RSEI）。结合变异系数分析了闽三角城市群RSEI的时空演变模式。此外，采用可解释的极端梯度提升（XGBoost SHAP）模型来识别自然和人类活动因素对生态环境质量的关键驱动因素、非线性效应和相互作用效应。结果表明：① 从时间上看，长三角城市群的RSEI呈现出先下降后上升的趋势。多年平均RSEI为0.62，最低和最高值分别出现在2010年（0.53）和2024年（0.68），表明总体生态质量良好。 ② 从空间上看，研究区RSEI呈“西北高东南低”的分布格局。生态质量改善的区域大于质量退化的区域，其比例相差4.51%。 ③ 研究区域RSEI的变异系数范围为0.58%至84.63%，平均值为11.97%。总体生态环境稳定，但存在显著的空间异质性。具体而言，54.86%的地区表现出较低的RSEI波动性，表明稳定，主要分布在植被覆盖率较高的西部和北部地区。相比之下，9.10%的地区被证明是不稳定的，主要位于东部沿海地区。 ④ 驱动生态环境质量变化的主导因素表现出时间异质性：从2000年到2010年，变化主要由植被覆盖率（FVC）、年平均温度（AT）和年降水量等自然因素驱动。相比之下，从2015年到2024年，变化转变为由自然因素（FVC）和人类活动因素（夜间光照强度（NTL）、人口分布）共同驱动。此外，自然和人类活动因素之间的相互作用非常复杂，表现出明显的阈值依赖性和效应方向的可逆性。例如，2000年观察到FVC和AT之间最明显的相互作用。具体来说，当FVC低于50%时，AT的增加具有积极的交互作用然而，超过这个阈值，FVC对RSEI的影响随着AT的增加逐渐转变为负面影响。相比之下，2024年，FVC和NTL之间发生了最显著的相互作用。当FVC低于45%时，NTL的增加对RSEI动力学的影响从负面转变为正面相反，当FVC超过45%时，交互效应从正向转变为负向。这些发现为闽三角城市群的生态文明建设和可持续发展提供了科学参考。

Abstract

Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of ecological environment quality and its driving factors in the Min Delta Urban Agglomeration is essential for ensuring regional ecological security and promoting high-quality development. Utilizing Landsat remote sensing datasets from 2000 to 2024 on the Google Earth Engine platform， this study calculated the remote sensing ecological index （RSEI） through principal component analysis. The spatiotemporal evolution patterns of RSEI in the Min Delta Urban Agglomeration were analyzed in conjunction with the coefficient of variation. Furthermore， the interpretable Extreme Gradient Boosting （XGBoost-SHAP） model was employed to identify key drivers， nonlinear effects， and interaction effects of both natural and human activity factors on ecological environment quality. The results showed that： ① Temporally， the RSEI of the Min Delta Urban Agglomeration exhibited an initial decline followed by an upward trend. The multi-year average RSEI was 0.62， with the lowest and highest values occurring in 2010 （0.53） and 2024 （0.68）， respectively， indicating generally good ecological quality overall. ② Spatially， the RSEI in the study area showed a distribution pattern of "higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast". The area with improved ecological quality was larger than that with degraded quality， with a difference of 4.51% in their respective proportions. ③ The coefficient of variation of RSEI in the study area ranged from 0.58% to 84.63%， with a mean value of 11.97%. The overall ecological environment was stable， but significant spatial heterogeneity existed. Specifically， 54.86% of the area exhibited low RSEI volatility， indicating stability， primarily distributed in the western and northern regions with high vegetation coverage. In contrast， 9.10% of the area was shown to be unstable， mainly located in the eastern coastal regions. ④ The dominant factors driving changes in ecological environment quality demonstrated temporal heterogeneity： From 2000 to 2010， changes were primarily driven by natural factors such as fractional vegetation coverage （FVC）， annual average temperature （AT）， and annual precipitation. In contrast， from 2015 to 2024， changes shifted to being co-driven by both natural factors （FVC） and human activity factors （nighttime light intensity （NTL）， population distribution）. Moreover， the interactions between natural and human activity factors were highly complex， exhibiting distinct threshold dependency and reversibility of effect directions. For instance， the most pronounced interaction was observed between FVC and AT in 2000. Specifically， when FVC was below 50%， an increase in AT had a positive interactive effect； however， beyond this threshold， the influence of FVC on RSEI changes gradually shifted to a negative effect as AT increased. By contrast， in 2024， the most significant interaction occurred between FVC and NTL. When FVC was less than 45%， increasing NTL transitioned from a negative to a positive effect on RSEI dynamics； conversely， when FVC exceeded 45%， the interactive effect shifted from positive to negative. These findings provide a scientific reference for ecological civilization construction and sustainable development in the Min Delta Urban Agglomeration.

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