农民和消费者对非洲猪瘟疫情的反应：对疫情后控制和根除的影响
Farmer and Consumer Responses to African Swine Fever Outbreaks: Implications for Post-Outbreak Control and Eradication.
摘要(中文译文)
非洲猪瘟（ASF）仍然是全球动物疫病防控面临的重大挑战。非洲猪瘟期间的公众情绪以及养殖户和消费者行为，是非洲猪瘟防控中尚未被充分研究的因素。本研究探讨公众情绪如何影响养殖户的风险感知和消费者的行为反应，包括消费替代意愿和猪肉价格预期，并评估这些行为对疫病防控效果的影响。利用中国省级面板数据（2021年6月至2022年11月）、对119万条微博帖子的情感分析以及对920名养殖户的微观调查，我们综合运用面板回归、空间计量分析和微观行为证据。结果表明，公众情绪显著提高了养殖户的风险感知，这可能影响其报告决策、出栏时机和生物安全投入，从而增加监测和疫病防控的复杂性。公众情绪加剧了替代意愿并塑造了猪肉价格预期，导致对正规渠道猪肉的需求下降，并可能转向可追溯性较低或检验较少的渠道。空间分析表明，公众情绪放大非洲猪瘟风险影响的半衰减距离约为1300公里，为跨辖区协调提供了参数。这些发现支持将社会行为指标纳入兽医早期预警系统，并在更广泛的“同一健康”（One Health）框架下设计有针对性的疫病风险沟通。
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) remains a major challenge for global animal disease prevention and control. Public sentiment during ASF, along with farmer and consumer behavior, are underexplored factors in ASF control. This study examines how public sentiment influences farmers' risk perceptions and consumers' behavioral responses, including consumption substitution intention and pork price expectations, and assesses the implications of these behaviors for disease control effectiveness. Using provincial panel data from China (June 2021-November 2022), sentiment analysis of 1.19 million Weibo posts, and a micro-level survey of 920 farmers, we combine panel regression, spatial econometric analysis, and micro-level behavioral evidence. Results show that public sentiment significantly elevates farmers' risk perception, which may influence reporting decisions, marketing timing, and biosecurity investment, thereby increasing the complexity of surveillance and disease control. Sentiment intensifies substitution intentions and shapes pork price expectations, leading to reduced demand for formally marketed pork and potential shifts to lower-traceability or less-inspected channels. Spatial analysis indicates that the half-decay distance for amplifying ASF risk via sentiment is about 1300 km, providing parameters for cross-jurisdictional coordination. These findings support integrating socio-behavioral indicators into veterinary early warning systems and designing targeted disease risk communication under a broader One Health framework.
如何引用
AMA
Chi Ma, Wenfei Zhang. Farmer and Consumer Responses to African Swine Fever Outbreaks: Implications for Post-Outbreak Control and Eradication.. Veterinary sciences. 2026; doi:10.3390/vetsci13040394.
APA
Chi Ma, Wenfei Zhang (2026). Farmer and Consumer Responses to African Swine Fever Outbreaks: Implications for Post-Outbreak Control and Eradication.. Veterinary sciences. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci13040394
GB/T 7714
Chi Ma, Wenfei Zhang. Farmer and Consumer Responses to African Swine Fever Outbreaks: Implications for Post-Outbreak Control and Eradication.[J]. Veterinary sciences, 2026 doi:10.3390/vetsci13040394.
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