模拟与栖息地特征相关的骡鹿慢性消耗性疾病传播风险

摘要(中文译文)

慢性消耗性疾病（CWD）是一种鹿科动物的朊病毒病，通过直接传播（与感染个体接触）、垂直传播（由母体传给后代）或间接传播（暴露于受污染的环境）传播给未感染的个体。间接传播的风险在景观上的分布是不均匀的，风险水平预计受感染和未感染个体的栖息地利用模式以及改变朊病毒保持感染性和可被摄取时间的环境属性的控制。尽管来自受控研究或实验室研究的证据已识别出可能影响CWD朊病毒在景观上分布模式的环境属性，但仍难以将机制与疾病传播风险实际增加或降低联系起来，且很少有研究尝试检测不同环境中不同CWD风险的模式。利用来自怀俄明州每年接受CWD检测的GPS项圈骡鹿的数据，我们构建了预测年度疾病传播概率的模型，该概率取决于从GPS使用点提取的环境属性。我们通过纳入或排除描述鹿密度、栖息地选择以及预期影响环境中朊病毒持续性的协变量集合，比较了强调不同疾病传播途径的模型。结果表明，骡鹿经常选择的关键栖息地特征，如靠近次级道路，也与CWD检测阳性的更高风险相关，这支持了疾病风险与鹿的栖息地利用模式相关的假说。我们还发现，与鹿未选择的空间属性相关的风险增加，如地形汇集水分的区域，表明朊病毒滞留机制也在风险中发挥作用。将这些空间变化的危险因素纳入我们对CWD传播和疫情进展的理解，可以支持管理者设计数据收集和疾病管理策略。

Abstract

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease of cervids that spreads to uninfected individuals through direct transmission (contact with infected individuals), vertical transmission (from mother to offspring), or indirect transmission (exposure to contaminated environments). The risk of indirect transmission is unevenly distributed on the landscape, and risk levels are expected to be controlled by patterns of habitat use by infected and uninfected individuals as well as environmental properties that alter the length of time prions remain infectious and available for uptake. Despite evidence from controlled or laboratory studies identifying environmental properties likely to affect patterns of CWD prion locations on the landscape, it remains difficult to connect mechanisms to realized increased or decreased risk of disease transmission, and few studies have attempted to detect patterns of different CWD risk in different environments. Using data from GPS-collared mule deer in Wyoming that were CWD-tested annually, we constructed models predicting annual probability of disease transmission contingent on environmental properties extracted from GPS use points. We compared models that emphasized different pathways of disease transmission by including or excluding sets of covariates that described deer density, habitat selection, and covariates expected to affect prion persistence in the environment. Results indicated that key habitat characteristics often selected by mule deer, such as proximity to secondary roads, were also associated with higher risk of testing positive for CWD, which supports the hypothesis that disease risk was correlated to patterns of habitat use by deer. We also found increased risk associated with spatial properties that were not selected-for by deer, such as areas where topography collects moisture, suggesting that prion retention mechanisms also play a role in risk. Incorporating these spatially-varying risk factors into our understanding of CWD transmission and outbreak progression can support managers in designing data collection and disease management strategies.

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